As reported by the NY Times: A
government auction of airwaves for use in mobile broadband has blown
through presale estimates, becoming the biggest auction in the Federal Communications Commission’s history and signaling that wireless companies expect demand for Internet access by smartphones to continue to soar.
And it’s not over yet.
Companies
bid more than $34 billion as of Friday afternoon for six blocks of
airwaves, totaling 65 megahertz of the electromagnetic spectrum, being sold by the F.C.C.
That total is more than three times the $10.5 billion reserve price
that the commission put on the sale, the first offering of previously
unavailable airwaves in six years.
Prices
are likely to rise further, because the auction has no definite end and
could continue for days or weeks. The previous record was $18.9 billion
raised in a 2008 sale of airwaves that, because of their lower
frequency, are considered more attractive for wireless phone use than
the current batch.
“It’s
stunning,” said Preston Padden, executive director of the Expanding
Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition, a group representing broadcast
television stations that are considering giving up their spectrum for
sale in the F.C.C.’s next auction, scheduled for 2016. “Consumer demand
for wireless broadband is on a growth curve that looks like a hockey
stick, and carriers are desperate to keep up with that demand.”
A successful sale was anything but a foregone conclusion. The frequencies are currently occupied by government agencies, including branches of the military, which had to be cajoled to agree to move out or to share portions of them.
Several
factors appear to have contributed to the auction’s success, as the
pent-up demand from years without an auction coincided with the
explosive popularity of smartphones and mobile broadband. The response
is more surprising given that the airwaves’ high frequency makes them
less attractive for wireless use than those sold in the last auction or
scheduled for the 2016 sale.
Coming soon after President Obama called for strong net neutrality regulations
to be applied equally to wireless networks, the robust bidding also
seems to indicate that mobile phone companies are not as reluctant to
make new investments as they indicated they were when protesting the
president’s recommendation.
The
auction is a significant victory for the F.C.C. and the National
Telecommunications and Information Administration, the agency in the
Commerce Department that oversees the nation’s communications systems.
It makes it much likelier that broadcast stations might be willing to
give up or move their positions on the spectrum to free up airwaves to
be sold in the 2016 auction, because they will receive a portion of the
proceeds as an incentive.
“Years
of hard work paved the way” for the auction, “and ongoing bidding
appears to signal considerable commercial interest in this spectrum,”
the F.C.C. chairman, Tom Wheeler, and an assistant secretary of
commerce, Lawrence E. Strickling, said in a joint statement on Friday.
About
$7 billion of the proceeds will be used to finance the building of a
nationwide public-safety communications network, known as FirstNet, with
the remainder going to the Treasury.
The
relatively high position on the electromagnetic spectrum of the blocks
being sold also cast doubt on their attractiveness. Higher-frequency
waves generally have more trouble passing through buildings, making them
less desirable for mobile phones, although they are able to carry lots
of data, increasingly important to wireless broadband.
Frequencies
being sold include two blocks in the 1695-1710 megahertz band, and four
paired sets of frequencies at 1755-1780 and 2155-2180 megahertz. The
next scheduled broadcast spectrum auction, in 2016, involves frequencies
in the 600 megahertz band.
The
last such sale was in 2008, when the iPhone was barely a year old and
demand for mobile broadband was at a relative trickle. Today, as
consumers stream video and share photographs with many more phones,
tablets and other devices, demand for bandwidth has exploded.
Some
analysts have also speculated that because the auction of broadcast
television bands currently scheduled for 2016 has already been delayed
twice, buyers might be skeptical that those frequencies will come to
market on schedule — giving them extra incentive to buy now rather than
wait.
Still,
the current spectrum, known as the AWS-3 bands, is also not likely to
be available for use for some years. Government users will first have to
move out of the bands, or buyers figure out how to share some of the
airwaves with military operators.
Seventy
companies were approved to bid in the auction, but the high bidders
will not be identified until after the auction is completed. New owners
will then have to engineer their devices to work with the high-frequency
spectrum, although the biggest companies, like AT&T and Verizon
Wireless, already use similar, adjacent frequencies, so that is not
likely to be too onerous.
Verizon
Wireless and AT&T are assumed to be among the big bidders in the
sale. But Philip Cusick, a financial analyst at J.P. Morgan, wrote in a
note to clients on Thursday that “the continued rapid rise in bids is a
sign that there is a third, or perhaps fourth, large bidder in the
auction.”
One
of those could be Dish Network, the satellite company, which already
owns some nearby frequencies. Dish Network’s share price rose 13 percent
last week as investors realized the aggressive bidding meant Dish’s
holdings were probably undervalued.
Shares
of Verizon and AT&T, for their part, fell slightly, as analysts
noted that the companies might be spending more than they expected.
Some
prices are truly eye-popping. The price for licenses in a 20-megahertz
block of paired frequencies covering New York and Long Island and
portions of adjacent states stood at $1.96 billion Friday afternoon. In
the bidding round that starts Monday morning, the minimum bid is more
than $2 billion.
The
results of the yet-to-be-completed auction have some parties calling
for Congress to pave the way for more sales, and soon. “Companies are
clamoring to give the federal government money,” Vince Jesaitis, vice
president for government affairs at the Information Technology Industry
Council, a trade group, wrote on the group’s blog last week.
“The
clamoring for spectrum available in this auction,” he added, “should
refocus our lawmakers’ attention on the value of this resource and the
need to put it to use to meet the needs of the American public.”
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