Tesla CEO Musk: Some Model S Owners to Get Hands-Free Steering

As reported by the LA Times: A small number of Tesla Model S owners will have their cars updated for a test of hands-free driving by the end of the month, Elon Musk, chief executive of the electric car company, said at Tesla’s annual shareholders meeting Tuesday.

Speaking at a standing-room-only meeting at the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, Calif., Musk outlined how he expects auto-pilot cars will become road ready.

He said the Palo Alto automaker’s efforts to develop a battery-swapping network for its electric cars have faltered and announced that the Model X, Tesla’s long-delayed sport utility vehicle, will reach the market in three to four months.

At the behest of shareholders addressing the company at the meeting, Musk agreed to look into using vegan materials for seating and other surfaces in Tesla cars. He also announced that Deepak Ahuja, the automaker’s veteran chief financial officer, is retiring but will stay on until a replacement is appointed.

Musk spent much of the meeting talking about the potential for robotic cars.

In the first phase of autopilot development, Musk said, drivers will need to remain fully alert and ready to take over the driving.

The feature is designed to alleviate part of the burden of driving from the driver but not replace the person at the controls. He said such a feature will be legal because the driver would remain responsible for control of the car and in the driver's seat.

“This is not an abdication of responsibility for steering,” Musk said.

But Tesla is aiming for a fully autonomous system in about three years.

“There will be a fully operational autopilot with everything that is needed for someone to go to sleep and wake up at their destination,” Musk said. “But this is an extremely difficult engineering project.”

Tesla would want a fully robotic car to be at least 10 times safer than a human driver before rolling it out, he said. Regulators would likely be even harder to convince, he said.

Speaking of the Model X, Musk said it will be the safest sport utility on the road. The electric architecture locates the heavy battery pack on the floor pan of the car, lowering its center of gravity and making the vehicle almost impossible to roll over, he said.

Musk said Tesla engineers are working out the final details of the car before approving it for production.

“Getting those final nuances right for the Model X is what we are focusing on right now,” Musk said.

The auto executive told shareholders that Tesla should do more to emphasize the safety of its cars, which he claimed had lower injury rates than other vehicles.

“As we can show statistics on accidents and so forth, it should translate to lower insurance rates,” Musk said. “We will have to work with insurance companies to make sure they are factoring in the actual accident rates for the Model S and Model X.”

Musk also disclosed that a much publicized effort to allow people to pull into roadside stations and swap a spent battery for a fully charged one has not worked out.

Tesla built such a station on Interstate 5 at the Harris Ranch, a midpoint on the drive from Los Angeles to San Francisco, but Tesla owners aren’t using it.

The automaker issued sample invitations to a group of about 200 California Model S owners to test out the swap system but only a handful used it, and then only once. A wider roll out also failed.

“We are seeing a very low take rate,” Musk said. “People don’t care about pack swap.”

Instead, they use Tesla’s network of free “superchargers” to recharge the cars. It takes longer, but they time it for a coffee break or a meal, he said.

Tesla doesn’t plan to expand its battery swap system, Musk said.

The swap system was important to Tesla because based on California Air Resources Board rules, it provided an opportunity to generate more valuable zero-emission vehicle credits. Tesla has made more than $500 million selling California and federal environmental credits to other automakers.

Airbus' Adeline Project Aims to Build Reusable Rockets and Space Tugs

As reported by Space.com: Europe wants reusable rockets, too.

European aerospace company Airbus has revealed its plans to develop rocket engines that fly back to a runway and a reusable upper stage that acts as a space tug — reusability concepts that mirror those being developed by American spaceflight companies SpaceX and United Launch Alliance (ULA).

Airbus has been working on its Advanced Expendable Launcher INnovative engine Economy (Adeline for short) reusable-rocket concept since 2010 and wants it to be up and running by 2025. The technology could help enable huge satellite constellations that would require a dramatic increase in the number of launches per year, company representatives have said. 

Meet Adeline

As envisioned, Adeline detaches from its rocket's first-stage fuel tank and re-enters Earth's atmosphere at five times the speed of sound with its engines behind the wings and a heatshield. Once in the atmosphere, Adeline uses its wings to autonomously fly toward a runway and, once at subsonic speeds, uses deployable propellers to power its return to the landing site, where it touches down on skids.

Adeline is being proposed for the planned two-stage Ariane 6 rocket theEuropean Space Agency is paying Airbus to develop. Ariane 6 could be flying in the 2020s. Adeline's engines use liquid fuel, such as kerosene and liquid oxygen, which other rockets also use. According to Airbus, this means Adeline could be used with other rockets.

Airbus is not the only company to propose a reusable propulsion module. In April, ULA announced its Vulcan rocket and the Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) initiative, which will allow Vulcan's main engines to be recovered through air capture.

Airbus has become interested in reusability because it thinks the technology could help increase annual launch rates, which in turn would enable the lofting of enormous satellite networks.

"We have to be ready to increase our cadence capability to increase the tons lifted to space per year, while reducing our costs," Hervé Gilibert, Airbus space systems' chief technical officer, told Space.com. "Payloads in future will be smaller and cheaper. We think we are at the edge of a big evolution of our business. You see in our landscape huge constellations that will need a drastic increase in launches per year."

Airbus isn't the only company thinking this way. For example, SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk has spoken of launching a constellation of 4,000 broadband Internet satellites into low-Earth orbit (LEO). A company called OneWeb has plans for a 650-satellite network. Other LEO business proposals since the early 1990s have proposed large numbers of telecommunication and imaging satellites.

Adeline vs. the Falcon 9

Since the dawn of the space age, engineers have wanted to return expensive launch vehicles to Earth for reuse, rather than let them burn up and be destroyed in the atmosphere. See our history of reusable rocket technology in this full infographic.
Credit: By Karl Tate, Infographics Artist

View full size image

Up to 80 percent of a rocket's cost is in its propulsion module, which can also contain the flight-control electronics, according to Airbus representatives. Airbus is predicting 30 percent savings for its reusable system compared to existing rockets, as a result of reduced production costs, Gilibert said.

Airbus claims its concept is more cost-effective than SpaceX's ongoing effort to develop a Falcon 9 rocket with a reusable first stage.

Gilibert also claimed that, with Adeline, Airbus' partially reusable Ariane 6 would have a payload performance that is better than SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9. The first stage of the Falcon 9 releases its upper stage and then descends, engines first, to land vertically using legs that deploy outward from the sides of the stage. (The rocket's upper stage is expendable.)

The Falcon 9 first stage needs 44 tons of propellant to reach a vertical landing site, according to Gilibert, and Adeline does not weigh as much.

"My guess, with a given launcher, is that [Adeline's] impact on payload performance, which for SpaceX is huge because it is a loss of 30 to 50 percent of the mass of the payload for a given orbit — our loss will be much lower," Gilibert said.

However, whereas SpaceXhas been flight-testing its vertical landing system when launching customer payloads — and has twice nearly landed the Falcon 9 first stage on a floating platform in the Atlantic Ocean — Airbus has not yet developed the reusable rocket engine Adeline calls for. The company has made more progress with the deployable propellers, though. [SpaceX Rocket Crashes During Landing Attempt (Video)]

Gilibert said that Airbus patented the deployable propellers up to two years ago, and prototypes were wind-tunnel-tested six to eight months ago.

"The proof of concept has been done. This [deployable propeller] concept is now de-risked," he said.  Airbus engineers have also flown a scale-model version of Adeline for landing tests.

Accommodating Adeline

The European Space Agency-funded rockets Ariane 5 and Vega are flown by launch provider Arianespace from a spaceport in French Guiana, in South America. Gilibert said that if Adeline is used with the Ariane 6, that rocket's launch pad will need "very limited adaptations" to make room for the wings.

He also claimed that, because Adeline's engines are protected by the heat shield on re-entry, their condition would be little different than those that have had a ground firing test, which all rocket engines experience prior to launch. As engines must be treated after the test fire to be ready for launch, Gilibert said engineers know what needs to be done, and he is not expecting a "lot of refurbishment" will be required to return Adeline to flight readiness.

The limited work could be carried out at the French Guiana spaceport, he added.

Whereas Adeline uses liquid fuel, Airbus' reusable upper stage/space tug concept employs electric propulsion and never returns to Earth. Electric propulsion involves accelerating electrically charged gas ions, typically xenon, using magnetic fields. The system requires relatively long periods of time to accelerate a spacecraft to high speeds, compared to traditional chemical propulsion.

Gilibert said the space tug would be left in orbit by the Ariane 6 and would be used "several times" to take payloads in LEO to a higher orbit. Each time the tug is used, an Ariane 6 second stage would rendezvous to deliver the payload and provide gaseous fuel resupply. Gilibert also suggested that other rockets, not just Ariane 6, could use the tug. Once the tug's operational life comes to an end, it can be sent on a remote exploration mission, Airbus representatives said.

International Space Station Shifts Orbit Position After Soyuz Glitch, Russians Say

As reported by Fox News: A glitch at the International Space Station on Tuesday caused its position in orbit to change, but the crew was not in danger, the Russian space agency said.

Roscosmos said the engines of a Soyuz spacecraft docked at the station unexpectedly started during testing of the radio system that controls the docking procedure.

Steps were taken to stabilize the station and specialists were now working to determine what caused the engines to start, the agency said.

Two Soyuz spacecraft are docked at the station, and one of them is scheduled to return three of the six crew members to Earth this week. Roscosmos did not specify which capsule had the malfunction, but said the landing would go ahead as planned.

Tuesday's problem follows the failure of a Soyuz booster rocket, which in addition to launching the manned Soyuz spacecraft also is used to send Progress cargo ships to the space station.

A Soyuz rocket carrying a Progress suffered a breakdown after a launch in April, prompting Russia to delay the landing of the three crew members and the launch of a new three-person crew. The landing, originally planned for last month, was rescheduled to Thursday.

Facebook and Google are Out of the Space Race

As reported by Quartz: Who wasn’t excited to see Facebook and Google battle for dominance of low-earth orbit?  Alas, it wasn’t meant to be: both companies are shelving their ambitious plans for satellite internet.

The tech-news site 'The Information' reports that Facebook is dropping its plans for a geo-stationary satellite over concerns that it will not recoup costs. Google, which hired satellite entrepreneur Greg Wyler to prepare an satellite constellation in 2014, backed out of that plan earlier this year.

Titan Aerospace is a Google supported project that uses solar powered
drones to provide network communications systems.

To which satellite experts might say: We told you so. Ambitious satellite-internet projects have a history of failure. Satellite-internet services today are fairly expensive, and offer slow data speeds.  

While Facebook’s cancelled project comes from the more traditional approach to satellite internet, the current hope of Wyler and other satellite entrepreneurs is that constellations made up of many small satellites could solve those two problems. They would offer faster service, since they are closer to earth than the typical communication satellites, which fly at high altitudes to maximize coverage; and they would cost less, since tiny satellites are typically less expensive than their larger siblings.

But even this plan may over-promise—one of the pioneers of the satellite business, Martin Sweeting, chairman of Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd., compared interest in small satellites to the froth on top of a cappuccino. The technical challenges to flying and operating a full-fledged constellation of them may still prove too difficult to surmount.

Similar to the Titan Aerospace system, project 'Loon' funded by
Google provides network communications systems using high altitude
balloons.

And that explains why mainstream, public tech companies like Google and Facebook have tabled their satellite plans—they are apparently riskier than self-driving cars and virtual reality, to name two experimental areas where these companies are still staking aggressive claims. Google also still owns Skybox, a satellite imaging start-up.

But fear not, internet fans, there are still some businesses that dream of creating real satellite internet, since the potential rewards for success could be quite high. Wyler, the entrepreneur who left Google, founded a new satellite-internet concern, with backing from Qualcomm and Virgin Galactic. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has said it is developing a constellation of small communications satellites of its own. And even Google remains an investor in O3b, the firm using satellites to boost internet access in emerging markets.

Of course, the logic for Google and Facebook remains clear: Increased connectivity around the world means more customers for their products. If another company solves the mystery of satellite internet first—through some combination of cheaper rocket launches and more powerful mini-satellites—expect Facebook and Google to look to the heavens once again.

Officials Push for Standard Collision Tech in Cars

As reported by PCMag: The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) strongly recommends that collision avoidance systems become standard on all new vehicles.

The technology, NTSB said, can prevent, or at least lessen the severity of, rear-end crashes—saving lives and reducing injuries.

Rear-end impacts kill about 1,700 people and injure half a million more each year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)reported. A vast majority of those accidents involved a distracted driving who was not paying attention to the traffic ahead.

But the agency said 80 percent of those instances could have been diverted, if vehicles were equipped with a collision avoidance system (CAS).

"You don't pay extra for your seat belt," NTSB Chairman Christopher Hart said in a statement. "And you shouldn't have to pay extra for technology that can prevent a collision altogether."

Continuing a two-decade-long fight for life-saving technology, the Safety Board recommends manufacturers start with collision warning systems. They can later add autonomous emergency braking, once NHTSA decides on the necessary standards.

In the past two decades, the NTSB has submitted 12 proposals in favor of CAS technologies. Progress, however, has been limited, which it blames on a lack of incentives and limited public awareness.

"The promise of a next generation of safety improvements has been used too often to justify inaction," Hart said. "Because there will always be better technologies over the horizon, we must be careful to avoid letting perfection become the enemy of the good."

Only four of last year's 684 passenger vehicle models included a complete forward collision avoidance system as a standard feature. When offered as an add-on, NTSB said, they are often bundled with non-safety features and boost the overall package price.

Still, the transportation agency is issuing a companion Safety Alert for consumers and commercial fleet owners, urging folks to consider vehicles with collision warning and autonomous emergency braking functions.

In January, the NHTSA said it will add two emergency-braking technologies to its New Car Assessment Program (NCAP), which rates vehicles on a five-point scale of safety: crash imminent braking (CIB) and dynamic brake support (DBS).

G-7 Leaders Set Goal to End Fossil-Fuel Use in 85 Years

As reported by MarketWatch: The Group of Seven leaders agreed Monday that the world should end its use of fossil fuels by the end of the century.  

“Deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required with a decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century,” the G-7 leaders from the United States, Germany, Canada, Japan, France, Italy and the United Kingdom said ina declaration from the meeting in Germany.

But the end of the century is a long way off.

In the meantime, “oil companies will predict that fossil fuels will remain dominant into the 22nd- and perhaps even the 23rd-century, but I sense more traction for the anti-carbon foes,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service.

‘If 90%-95% of vehicles in [California] are still running on fossil fuel by, say, 2025, then it’s clear that it would take an unprecedented [oil] price spike or a global event on the order of sustained rising oceans to spur action.’

Tom Kloza, Oil Price Information Service

“The laboratory for this in the United States is still California,” he said. “If 90%-95% of vehicles in that state are still running on fossil fuel by, say, 2025, then it’s clear that it would take an unprecedented [oil] price spike or a global event on the order of sustained rising oceans to spur action.”

Read: World Bank forecasts $90 trillion new low-carbon stock opportunity

The G-7 agreed that global emissions should be cut at the upper end of a 40%-to-70% range by 2050 from 2010 levels.

The leaders recognize that the challenge can only be met by a “global response” and said the G-7 will do its part “to achieve a low-carbon global economy in the long term, including developing and deploying innovative technologies striving for a transformation of the energy sectors by 2050.”

It will certainly be a challenge in the United States.

Kloza said “fossil fuels have clearly become a more prominent choice because of the sharp drop in price that began in earnest about 10 months ago.” He also pointed out that “driving a car that uses gasoline or diesel is a better choice when viewed from the simplest economic perspective.”

Still, Kloza said that “instinct” tells him the technology to end the use of fossil fuels as our main transportation fuel will exist by the year 2100.

He also admits he doesn’t have any “special technical insight.”

“Back in the 1970s, I would have thought that we could travel cross-country at supersonic levels and make the NY to LA trip in, say, two hours,” he said. “Instead, it takes longer than ever in a seat that is smaller than ever.”

27% of Americans Already Support Limits on Humans Driving Cars, Prefer Self-Driving

As reported by Breitbard:

In a national poll, more than 1 in 4 Americans said they would support limits on humans driving cars in the near future, given the fact that robotic self-driving cars could be safer.

Google says that self-driving cars will likely be commercialized in about 5 years, and their wide-spread use could overtake human-driven cars soon after. From the available evidence, they are much much safer: self-driving cars have been involved in only a few minor accidents, which is why they are estimated to save the lives of around 21,700 people a year and save the country billions of dollars.

Hence, this is why the world’s happiest mad scientist and Tesla founder Elon Musk thinks that the government may eventually outlaw humans driving cars altogether or, at least, place severe restrictions on them.

At this stage, 27 percent is a much higher poll number than I was expecting. It was only 17 years ago that 27 percent of Americans favored legalizing marijuana — and now a majority do (roughly the exact same trend for gay marriage).

Typically, Americans are averse to any sort of restrictions, which is why phrasing a survey question as something that the government “forbids” normally ends up in biasing the results towards heavy opposition.

At the moment, as expected, most respondents still support the right of Americans to drive their own car. One survey respondent wrote:

[I] support the movement toward self driving vehicles however i personally enjoy the freedom …based on this view i feel that autonomy should be optional when driving and not mandated.

Still, these numbers are quite high. I expect they could reach a majority in favor of restricting human drivers in less than a generation after self-driving cars are widely available.

You can read the full results and methods of the Ferenstein Wire poll, conducted with the help of Google Surveys, here.