GPS Tracking Devices Estimated to Hit $3.5 Billion in 2019

As reported by PCB007: Health, commercial/enterprise, wearables, and iBeacons will help to revive the GPS tracking device market, with ABI Research forecasting the market to reach over $3.5 billion in 2019.

The GPS personal tracking market has always had huge potential yet it has faced huge barriers around awareness and ROI, expensive devices, cellular subscriptions, indoor location and severe regionalization and fragmentation. As a result the market has never been able to scale sufficiently to lower costs and create the revenue to support much needed marketing/advertising campaigns.

In its latest report, “Personal Location Device and Application Markets,” ABI Research considers adoption of GPS devices and smartphone applications across family, elderly/health, lone worker, pets, and personal assets. Senior analyst Patrick Connolly commented, “The potential of this market continues to draw investment and interest. Over the last 12 months, there has been a host of companies entering this space. As well as a steady stream of start-ups like estimate and hereO, buoyed by wearables and iBeacons, enterprise/commercial GPS companies are moving into areas such as mobile workforce management and lone worker applications, while the connected home market will evolve to support personal protection across children, pets, cars, etc.; e.g. 

Carriers eager to solve the problem of saturated markets have begun to reconsider this space with the dawn of GPS-enabled wearables and the Internet of Things (IoT).”

This is reflected in a significant increase in GPS IC shipments into this space over the past year, as low-cost GPS units become adopted worldwide for a host of applications. 

iBeacons are set to be a major driver, solving the issue of indoor location, while also creating a low-cost entry point for both OEMs and consumers. With BLE beacons forecast to penetrate into all aspects of life over the next 3 years, consumer awareness and acceptance will quickly emerge.

Other advances in technology, such as eLoran, commercial drone systems, autonomous or semi-autonomous vehicles using LIDAR, M2M communications for GPS based IoT, and tracking devices using multiple GPS/GNSS systems and tracking silicon with accelerometers and inertial navigation - and augmented with with jamming and spoofing detection are likely to keep the GPS tracking industry moving forward at a rapid pace.

Transportation Legislation Update: HOS, ELDs, and CSA

As reported by Fleet Owner: When the Senate confirmed Anne Ferro in November 2009 the principal controversies that would dominate her nearly five-year tenure at the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) were already well defined even though Ferro was the first confirmed FMCSA administrator under a Democratic presidential administration.

Three of FMCSA’s biggest issues over the past five years were set in motion by Ferro’s predecessors or by events during their tenure: The changes in hours-of-service (HOS) regulations for drivers, electronic logging devices (ELDs), and the Compliance, Safety, Accountability (CSA) program.

Hours of service

Although every FMCSA administrator since Congress created the agency in 2000 has had to deal with the HOS rules due to a series of lawsuits challenging the Bush administration’s rules, it’s not accurate to consider the agency’s actions under Ferro to be merely caretaking.

When President Obama nominated Ferro, who at the time was head of the Maryland Motor Truck Assn., four groups – Public Citizen, Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, the Truck Safety Coalition and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters – were challenging the 2008 rules in court.

Ferro spoke in favor of reconsidering the rules during her confirmation hearing. In what some at the time assumed was a quid pro quo, the Obama administration settled the lawsuit in October 2009 by agreeing to rewrite the HOS rules. A day later, the Senate Commerce Committee approved Ferro’s nomination, and she was confirmed by the Senate just over a week later.

The proposed new HOS rules came a little over a year later and drew sharp criticism from the American Trucking Assns. for the plan to require that the 34-hour restart include two consecutive periods of midnight to 6 a.m. FMCSA’s final HOS rules issued a year later narrowed that period to 1 a.m. to 5 a.m., but it wasn’t nearly enough to satisfy the trucking industry.

The trucking industry and its critics separately challenged the rules – the latter because they retained the restart in any form as well as 11 hours of driving during a work day. The HOS restart changes took effect on July 1, 2013; a month later, a federal appeals court upheld the rules.

With judicial remedies exhausted, ATA shifted its focus to Congress. A bill was introduced in October to reverse the restart changes pending a Government Accountability Office (GAO) study, and the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) issued the results of a study identifying many unintended consequences from the restart, including pushing traffic into times of more congested traffic.

These efforts led to a contentious hearing by a House Small Business Committee subcommittee in which Ferro defended FMCSA’s actions, questioned ATRI’s methodology and even scolded one or two members of Congress for minimizing the rules’ safety benefits.

As the fight over the HOS restart continued, Ferro signaled some willingness to compromise, but she fought the industry over efforts to use the Dept. of Transportation (DOT) funding bill to reverse the HOS restart changes pending the study. During this battle, which has yet to be resolved, a blog post under Ferro’s name was the last straw for the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Assn. (OOIDA), which called on DOT Secretary Anthony Foxx to replace her.

Electronic logging devices

The move toward electronic logs really started in January 2007 when FMCSA Administrator John Hill, who proposed to require electronic onboard recorders (EOBRs) for certain bad actors.

Although FMCSA failed to finalize the EOBR rule before the end of the Bush administration, the agency did something else that that would change the dynamics on EOBR acceptance. On Dec. 24, 2008, the agency issued a memorandum stating that it would begin using satellite positioning data routinely as a supporting document.

Carriers using in-cab communications systems now were accountable for the precise, time-stamped location of their trucks. Some decided that they might as well use EOBRs so they could manage drivers’ time better and avoid getting slammed during safety audits.

FMCSA issued a final EOBR rule in April 2010 that differed significantly from the original proposal, but it still limited a mandate to carriers that had been shown to need additional scrutiny. OOIDA challenged the rule in court. While OOIDA challenge was pending, the agency came back the following January with a proposed rule that would extend the EOBR requirement to all drivers required to maintain records of duty status.

By now, the dynamics of the trucking industry had changed significantly. With FMCSA using satellite data as supporting documents in safety audits and the new CSA program making it more critical to avoid log violations, most large carriers not only were adopting EOBRs but also wanted a level playing field. So in April 2011, ATA endorsed FMCSA’s plan.

FMCSA’s plans derailed in August 2011, however, when a federal appeals court sided with OOIDA, striking down the EOBR rule on the grounds that it violated a longstanding statutory provision barring motor carriers from using electronic devices to harass drivers.

Unlike what has happened with the HOS restart so far, Congress stepped in and mandated the newly renamed electronic logging device (ELD) as part of MAP-21, leading to a new rulemaking in March proposing to mandate ELDs. This time, FMCSA loaded its proposal with steps intended to reduce the use of ELDs to harass drivers, but OOIDA still opposes the plan.

Compliance, Safety, Accountability

In her first months as FMCSA’s administrator, Ferro probably focused more on CSA than on any other initiative, but it certainly didn’t begin with her.  The move toward CSA – then known as the Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2010 program – began under FMCSA Administrator Annette Sandberg. The first mention of CSA in the Federal Register was an Aug. 20, 1994 announcement of public listening sessions. By November 2009, therefore, CSA and the methodology underlying it, the Safety Measurement System (SMS), had already undergone more than five years of development.

But it was Ferro’s FMCSA that rolled out CSA and SMS in December 2010, and the agency has updated and tweaked SMS several times since to the point where the program is significantly different from how it appeared in November 2009 or even in December 2010.

Gripes about CSA as FMCSA rolled it out fell into two principal categories. First, many critics argued that the SMS methodology was flawed by giving improper weight to certain violations and not taking into account accident preventability, for example. Second, some groups charged that FMCSA and Ferro personally were encouraging shippers and brokers to rely improperly on CSA scores in selecting carriers. FMCSA settled one lawsuit on the latter issue, leading to a new website disclaimer.

Despite tweaks over several years, complaints about CSA have only grown louder. ATA summarized its concerns with a white paper late last year. In February, GAO sharply criticized CSA in several respects, prompting FMCSA to respond with its own analysis. The following month, the DOT Office of Inspector General (OIG) also faulted FMCSA’s implementation of CSA, focusing on issues of data quality and interventions.

FMCSA has responded to the criticism primarily with relatively minor tweaks. For example, the agency next month will change the SMS website presentation to incorporate, among other things, safety ratings and licensing and insurance information. In doing so, it looked past arguments that SMS data is too flawed to be presented at all in its current form.

The agency also has changed the DataQs process to allow drivers and carriers to update their safety records to reflect the outcome of challenged traffic citations. But many in the industry – including OOIDA which is litigating the issue – have a bigger concern over DataQs because it doesn’t allow for a federal appeal. The state – sometimes even the very agency that issued the original violation – is the final arbiter.

Ferro leaves with uncompleted work on ELDs and CSA with a final rule on the former still to come and a proposed safety fitness determination rulemaking years behind schedule and continuing to slide. And on HOS, Congress may yet this year reverse the restart changes pending a study.

Tesla's Model S's Private GPS for Navigation in China

As reported by Stocks.org: Tesla has certainly experienced its highs and lows, and the company has overcome many challenges. The latest issue that is plaguing the American electric car maker is the compatibility problem of its GPS in China.

Tesla announced a few months ago that its Model S electric car would feature a private GPS system powered by Google Maps and is linked to Google Earth. This GPS system is able to provide the user with information regarding terrains, traffic conditions, and speed limit along various roads. The company also says that the GPS is able to learn the user’s driving habits.

Tesla’s GPS does more than just find the fastest way from point A to point B. Through its integrated technology, it is able to calculate the best route to save battery consumption as well. It is able to approximate the amount of battery charge that each trip takes, and advise whether or not the vehicle has enough battery energy to make the trip. If your car needs to charge along the way, it will find and suggest options with charging stations.

However, this GPS system does not work in China.

Tesla has experienced woes in China ever it tried to break into the Chinese luxury vehicle market. The Model S is considered to be in the segment of luxury cars in China. Including tax, the price is about 1 million RMB.

The Model S vehicles that are sold in China no longer offer the GPS feature. The problem is that Google Maps is not available in China, a country that continues to closely monitor everything that is accessible on the Internet and especially prohibits aerial views of its territory.

Tesla explained all this in an official statement and indicated that engineers are trying to find a solution to bring these features to its customers in China. The company is actively working on an alternative system that supports voice recognition and Chinese writing, and should be available by the end of this year. They said that customers will be kept informed and that once the system is operational, the owners of Tesla S will only start updating their system to have GPS and navigation.

UK Driverless Vehicle Trials to Begin in 2015

As reported by GigaOM: Driverless cars will be permitted on British roads for testing from January 2015, when 3 cities will begin hosting trials of the new technology.

The trials will last between 18 months and 3 years. Meanwhile, the U.K. government will also review the current rules of the road to see what might need to change as autonomous vehicles are introduced. This review will examine both fully driverless cars and those that can still be taken over by a human driver.

“Today’s announcement will see driverless cars take to our streets in less than 6 months, putting us at the forefront of this transformational technology and opening up new opportunities for our economy and society,” Business Secretary Vince Cable said in a statement.  

Many car manufacturers and research organizations are working on the development of autonomous cars, including familiar names like Google, Tesla, Volvo, Nissan, Nokia and Mercedes-Benz. Tests of driverless vehicles on public roads are already taking place in Japan and in the U.S. states of California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada. Trials on Swedish roads will begin in 2017.  

The shift towards vehicle automation is largely about energy efficiency and safety. As the vision goes, vehicles will ultimately be able to move down major thoroughfares in wirelessly connected swarms, with individual cars breaking off as needed. There would also be major benefits for the visually-impaired and others who have difficulty driving.

Apple Wins Patent for Crowd-Sourced Traffic Navigation

The envisioned system would help you plan your route by
analyzing stop lights, stop signs, and obstacles that can slow
your trip.

As reported by C/NET: Imagine a navigation system that can guide you based on the number of stop lights, stop signs, and obstacles along the way. A new Apple patent describes just that.

Granted by the US Patent and Trademark Office on Tuesday, an Apple patent called "Routing based on detected stops" takes the concept of crowd-sourced navigation a few steps further than usual.

Current products such as Waze combine traffic data collected from multiple drivers to suggest the quickest way for you to reach your destination. Crowd-sourcing the information provides more accurate and real-time information than can be achieved through standard navigation apps, such as Google Maps and Apple's Maps app. But even today's crowd-sourced systems can only go so far in taking into account every possible interruption or slowdown along your route. A smarter system that could truly find the best route would be a boon to every driver.

In Apple's patent, such a smart navigation system would use the GPS in your mobile device to collect any detected stops of your car and determine how long each stop lasts. The information could even be analyzed to distinguish between stop lights and stop signs. The data itself would be sent to a remote server and then shared with the vehicles tapped into the system via a regular navigation app, such as Google Maps or Apple Maps.

As a driver, you could then use that information to determine the quickest route to your destination. You could also more accurately estimate the duration of your trip based on the data and even determine the best time to leave to reach your destination without being late.

Over time, the server could also collect and collate the data to predict specific traffic patterns based on the location of stop lights, time of day, and other factors.

As always, even an approved patent doesn't mean this technology will make its way into the real world. But a driver can always hope.

Cruising the High Seas; Engineers Detect Fake GPS Signals

As reported by Physics.org: Cruising the Mediterranean aboard a superyacht, a Cornell professor and grad student took their Global Positioning System (GPS) research to the high seas. For four days in late June, they tested the newest version of their GPS "spoofing" detector, which allows them to differentiate between real or fake GPS signals – a technology that could lead to protection strategies against insidious GPS hackers.

Mark Psiaki, professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and graduate student Brady O'Hanlon spent a week aboard the White Rose of Drachs, a privately owned luxury superyacht, testing their second-generation detector as the boat set out from Monaco, cruised around Italy, and eventually landed in Venice.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Mark Psiaki, professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and graduate student Brady O'Hanlon spent a week aboard the White Rose of Drachs, a privately owned luxury superyacht, testing their second-generation detector as the boat set out from Monaco, cruised around Italy, and eventually landed in Venice.

A spoofer, a device that produces false GPS signals that a receiver mistakes for real ones, was invented at Cornell by Todd Humphreys, Ph.D. '08, now an assistant professor of the University of Texas at Austin. Humphreys tested his latest spoofer aboard the same yacht last year; this year, Psiaki and O'Hanlon joined for a follow-up experiment to see if they could outsmart the spoofer.

Humphreys' spoofer and Psiaki's detector have drawn interest from the public as well as federal government officials, who in 2012 allowed a GPS spoofing demonstration involving a "hijacked" mini drone at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.

Aboard the yacht in international waters, the Cornell and UT Austin teams were free to conduct their research unhindered; on land, it's very difficult to get permission to hack a GPS signal, even for research purposes, Psiaki said.

Stationed in different areas of the boat, Humphreys' team initiated a planned "attack" of the boat's GPS receiver, overlaying a disguised false signal on top of the real one, and attempting to send the boat off-course without generating any obvious warning signs.

Psiaki and O'Hanlon's job was to detect these false signals, through real-time analysis of their properties, and to provide protection against a would-be attack by issuing a definitive warning whenever false signal characteristics were uncovered.

The experiments proved the functionality of their second-generation detector and allowed them to pinpoint areas in need of improvement.

In one dramatic test, the yacht's GPS receiver was spoofed into believing that it was veering off course to Venice and heading to Libya at a very high speed. The Cornell detector was able to warn the White Rose's bridge crew about the attack before the yacht was 20 meters off course.

"We want to progress to the point where not only can we tell it's a false signal, but we can also say, 'Here is the true signal; here is the true position,'" Psiaki said.

The owner of the White Rose of Drachs, an anonymous businessman with whom Humphreys became connected through a conference in Austin, allows the boat to be used for scientific purposes during off seasons.

Psiaki will share results about the superyacht experiments at the Institute of Navigation's GNSS+ conference in September in Tampa, Fla.

Mark Psiaki, professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and graduate student Brady O'Hanlon spent a week aboard the White Rose of Drachs, a privately owned luxury superyacht, testing their second-generation detector as the boat set out from Monaco, cruised around Italy, and eventually landed in Venice.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Mark Psiaki, professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and graduate student Brady O'Hanlon spent a week aboard the White Rose of Drachs, a privately owned luxury superyacht, testing their second-generation detector as the boat set out from Monaco, cruised around Italy, and eventually landed in Venice.
A spoofer, a device that produces false GPS signals that a receiver mistakes for real ones, was invented at Cornell by Todd Humphreys, Ph.D. '08, now an assistant professor of the University of Texas at Austin. Humphreys tested his latest spoofer aboard the same yacht last year; this year, Psiaki and O'Hanlon joined for a follow-up experiment to see if they could outsmart the spoofer.
Humphreys' spoofer and Psiaki's detector have drawn interest from the public as well as federal government officials, who in 2012 allowed a GPS spoofing demonstration involving a "hijacked" mini drone at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.
Aboard the yacht in international waters, the Cornell and UT Austin teams were free to conduct their research unhindered; on land, it's very difficult to get permission to hack a GPS signal, even for research purposes, Psiaki said.
Stationed in different areas of the boat, Humphreys' team initiated a planned "attack" of the boat's GPS receiver, overlaying a disguised false signal on top of the real one, and attempting to send the boat off-course without generating any obvious warning signs.
Psiaki and O'Hanlon's job was to detect these false signals, through real-time analysis of their properties, and to provide protection against a would-be attack by issuing a definitive warning whenever false signal characteristics were uncovered.
The experiments proved the functionality of their second-generation detector and allowed them to pinpoint areas in need of improvement.
In one dramatic test, the yacht's GPS receiver was spoofed into believing that it was veering off course to Venice and heading to Libya at a very high speed. The Cornell detector was able to warn the White Rose's bridge crew about the attack before the yacht was 20 meters off course.
"We want to progress to the point where not only can we tell it's a false signal, but we can also say, 'Here is the true signal; here is the true position,'" Psiaki said.
The owner of the White Rose of Drachs, an anonymous businessman with whom Humphreys became connected through a conference in Austin, allows the boat to be used for scientific purposes during off seasons.
Psiaki will share results about the superyacht experiments at the Institute of Navigation's GNSS+ conference in September in Tampa, Fla.


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Mark Psiaki, professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and graduate student Brady O'Hanlon spent a week aboard the White Rose of Drachs, a privately owned luxury superyacht, testing their second-generation detector as the boat set out from Monaco, cruised around Italy, and eventually landed in Venice.
A spoofer, a device that produces false GPS signals that a receiver mistakes for real ones, was invented at Cornell by Todd Humphreys, Ph.D. '08, now an assistant professor of the University of Texas at Austin. Humphreys tested his latest spoofer aboard the same yacht last year; this year, Psiaki and O'Hanlon joined for a follow-up experiment to see if they could outsmart the spoofer.
Humphreys' spoofer and Psiaki's detector have drawn interest from the public as well as federal government officials, who in 2012 allowed a GPS spoofing demonstration involving a "hijacked" mini drone at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.
Aboard the yacht in international waters, the Cornell and UT Austin teams were free to conduct their research unhindered; on land, it's very difficult to get permission to hack a GPS signal, even for research purposes, Psiaki said.
Stationed in different areas of the boat, Humphreys' team initiated a planned "attack" of the boat's GPS receiver, overlaying a disguised false signal on top of the real one, and attempting to send the boat off-course without generating any obvious warning signs.
Psiaki and O'Hanlon's job was to detect these false signals, through real-time analysis of their properties, and to provide protection against a would-be attack by issuing a definitive warning whenever false signal characteristics were uncovered.
The experiments proved the functionality of their second-generation detector and allowed them to pinpoint areas in need of improvement.
In one dramatic test, the yacht's GPS receiver was spoofed into believing that it was veering off course to Venice and heading to Libya at a very high speed. The Cornell detector was able to warn the White Rose's bridge crew about the attack before the yacht was 20 meters off course.
"We want to progress to the point where not only can we tell it's a false signal, but we can also say, 'Here is the true signal; here is the true position,'" Psiaki said.
The owner of the White Rose of Drachs, an anonymous businessman with whom Humphreys became connected through a conference in Austin, allows the boat to be used for scientific purposes during off seasons.
Psiaki will share results about the superyacht experiments at the Institute of Navigation's GNSS+ conference in September in Tampa, Fla.


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Mark Psiaki, professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and graduate student Brady O'Hanlon spent a week aboard the White Rose of Drachs, a privately owned luxury superyacht, testing their second-generation detector as the boat set out from Monaco, cruised around Italy, and eventually landed in Venice.
A spoofer, a device that produces false GPS signals that a receiver mistakes for real ones, was invented at Cornell by Todd Humphreys, Ph.D. '08, now an assistant professor of the University of Texas at Austin. Humphreys tested his latest spoofer aboard the same yacht last year; this year, Psiaki and O'Hanlon joined for a follow-up experiment to see if they could outsmart the spoofer.
Humphreys' spoofer and Psiaki's detector have drawn interest from the public as well as federal government officials, who in 2012 allowed a GPS spoofing demonstration involving a "hijacked" mini drone at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.
Aboard the yacht in international waters, the Cornell and UT Austin teams were free to conduct their research unhindered; on land, it's very difficult to get permission to hack a GPS signal, even for research purposes, Psiaki said.
Stationed in different areas of the boat, Humphreys' team initiated a planned "attack" of the boat's GPS receiver, overlaying a disguised false signal on top of the real one, and attempting to send the boat off-course without generating any obvious warning signs.
Psiaki and O'Hanlon's job was to detect these false signals, through real-time analysis of their properties, and to provide protection against a would-be attack by issuing a definitive warning whenever false signal characteristics were uncovered.
The experiments proved the functionality of their second-generation detector and allowed them to pinpoint areas in need of improvement.
In one dramatic test, the yacht's GPS receiver was spoofed into believing that it was veering off course to Venice and heading to Libya at a very high speed. The Cornell detector was able to warn the White Rose's bridge crew about the attack before the yacht was 20 meters off course.
"We want to progress to the point where not only can we tell it's a false signal, but we can also say, 'Here is the true signal; here is the true position,'" Psiaki said.
The owner of the White Rose of Drachs, an anonymous businessman with whom Humphreys became connected through a conference in Austin, allows the boat to be used for scientific purposes during off seasons.
Psiaki will share results about the superyacht experiments at the Institute of Navigation's GNSS+ conference in September in Tampa, Fla.


Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Cruising the Mediterranean aboard a superyacht, a Cornell professor and grad student took their Global Positioning System (GPS) research to the high seas. For four days in late June, they tested the newest version of their GPS "spoofing" detector, which allows them to differentiate between real or fake GPS signals – a technology that could lead to protection strategies against insidious GPS hackers.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Cruising the Mediterranean aboard a superyacht, a Cornell professor and grad student took their Global Positioning System (GPS) research to the high seas. For four days in late June, they tested the newest version of their GPS "spoofing" detector, which allows them to differentiate between real or fake GPS signals – a technology that could lead to protection strategies against insidious GPS hackers.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Cruising the Mediterranean aboard a superyacht, a Cornell professor and grad student took their Global Positioning System (GPS) research to the high seas. For four days in late June, they tested the newest version of their GPS "spoofing" detector, which allows them to differentiate between real or fake GPS signals – a technology that could lead to protection strategies against insidious GPS hackers.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-07-cruising-high-seas-fake-gps.html#jCp

Urban Jungle a Tough Challenge for Google’s Autonomous Cars

As reported by MIT Technology Review: After catching the world and the auto industry by surprise with its progress with self-driving cars, Google has begun the latest, most difficult phase of its project – making the vehicles smart enough to handle the chaos of city streets.

But while the company describes its work with its typical tight-lipped optimism, academic experts in robotics are cautious about the prospects of fully autonomous vehicles. They estimate it will be decades until they can perform as well as human drivers in all situations – if they ever do at all.

Google’s cars make extensive use of detailed maps that describe not only roads and restrictions such as speed limits, but the 3-D location of stop lights and curbstones to within inches. The company is now working to make its vehicles capable of seeing and understanding the kind of unexpected obstacles that don’t appear on those maps and are particularly common in urban areas, said Chris Urmson, the director of the project, last week.

“Obviously, the world doesn't stay the same,” said Urmson, speaking at a conference bringing together academics and auto-industry engineers working on autonomous driving. “You need to be able to deal with things like temporary construction, and so we've been putting a lot of effort into understanding the semantic meaning of the world.”

For example, an autonomous car should be capable of recognizing that a school bus is different from other vehicles of a similar size and may behave differently, said Urmson.

Urmson showed video of a prototype Google car navigating through a real-life construction zone marked by flashing yellow arrow signs, and even stopping when a “construction worker”—actually a Google employee—waved a hand-held stop sign.

Having cars understand those types of hazards is crucial to Google because of a recent change in the direction of its project. The company’s original prototypes were based on conventional vehicles, and a human passenger could use the steering wheel and brake pedal to intervene in the event of a glitch. But in May, Google said that humans couldn't be counted on to stay focused enough on the road (see “Lazy Humans Shaped Google’s Autonomous Car”). It unveiled a new prototype without a steering wheel or pedals and said research would now focus on making vehicles that are 100 percent autonomous—leaving no room for error.

Academic experts at the conference say Google is taking on some of the hardest problems in artificial intelligence and robotics, essentially trying to replicate the ability of humans to effortlessly make sense of their environment. That’s because driving safely relies on much more than just knowing to avoid big objects, such as people or other cars, or being able to recognize symbols such as a stop sign.

Humans make use of myriad “social cues” while on the road, such as establishing eye contact or making inferences about how a driver will behave based on the car’s make and model, Alberto Broggi, a researcher at Italy’s Universita di Parma, told MIT Technology Review.

Even if a computer system can recognize something, understanding the context that gives it meaning is much more difficult, said Broggi, who has directed several major European Research Council grants in autonomous driving. For example, a fully autonomous car would need to understand that someone waving his arms by the side of the road is actually a policeman trying to stop traffic.

When surveyed by the conference organizers, the 500 experts in attendance were not optimistic such problems would be solved soon. Asked when they would trust a fully robotic car to take their children to school, more than half said 2030 at the very earliest. A fifth said not until 2040, and roughly one in 10 said “never.”

Several of them told MIT Technology Review they wouldn't be surprised if self-driving cars were, for many decades, limited to specific, well-controlled settings, such as construction sites and campus-like environments with low speed limits and minimal traffic.

Most big auto companies are exploring self-driving cars. One of them, Nissan, caused a stir last year when it predicted it would be selling them by 2020. Last week, though, Nissan used the conference to dial back that forecast, saying instead that cars by the end of the decade will be able to handle selected tasks, such as parking and freeway driving. Despite being bullish about its technology, Google doesn’t make predictions about when fully autonomous vehicles might arrive.

John Leonard, an MIT expert in autonomous driving who attended the conference, says that he and other academics find themselves constantly battling the assumption that all of the technology challenges associated with robotic cars have been solved, with only regulatory and legal issues remaining. “It’s hard to convey to the public how hard this is,” he says.

Leonard stands by a comment that earned him some online criticism in an MIT Technology Review story last year, when he predicted that he wouldn’t see a self-driving Manhattan taxi in his lifetime (see “Driverless Cars Are Further Away Than You Think”).