High-End GPS May Give Airline Passengers Smoother Flights

As reported by Forbes: Anyone who’s flown can attest to atmospheric turbulence. My worst was one late December in the North Pacific, some 400 miles south of the Aleutians. The plane started shuddering and bucking so badly that even the flight attendants looked spooked.

But moderate to severe turbulence can cause more than just a racing heart.

Passengers aboard two recent flights encountered severe, if not extreme, clear air turbulence. The first incident, in which five United passengers and crew were injured, took place earlier last month as a Boeing 737 was making its approach into Billings, Montana.

The second, a day later, took place aboard a Cathay Pacific Boeing 747 en route from San Francisco to Hong Kong. Several passengers and crew were injured in some thirty seconds of severe turbulence over the Japanese Island of Hokkaido, which at least one passenger described as nothing short of a “roller coaster.”

In fact, the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) reports that there are more than 1000 turbulence-related injuries on commercial aircraft each year. In the last decade alone, Robert Sharman, an atmospheric scientist at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) in Boulder, Colorado, says there have even been a handful of turbulence-related deaths.

But atmospheric weather at a range of altitudes is inherently harder to predict than surface weather.

“The difficulty is that turbulence is highly spatially dependent and can change in ten minutes’ time,” said Sharman. As a result, he says, most turbulence alerts still originate from the pilots themselves.

However, Seth Gutman, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) in Boulder, and colleagues, has proposed using the existing Global Positioning System (GPS) as a real time probe for atmospheric turbulence.

GPS signals, Gutman explains, are refracted and delayed by water vapor as they travel through earth’s lower atmosphere.

“We take that signal delay info and provide that to weather models,” said Gutman. “But instead of averaging this out over half an hour, we propose doing it over timescales of about a second.”

The key is tapping into existing state-of-the-art GPS receivers that are typically used for high-accuracy applications; including emergency response; engineering; road construction; even geophysics monitoring.

Gutman says there are already thousands of such GPS receiving stations across the U.S. maintained mostly by state and local governments.

The idea is to use arrays of these systems at fixed locations on the ground to directly detect turbulence within the GPS antennas’ field of view.

The same principle would also apply for use with Russia’s Glonass system; Europe’s forthcoming Galileo system; China’s Compass; and Japan’s QZSS.

Such a turbulence warning system could even cover the polar routes, says Gutman.

One potential shortfall of Gutman’s proposal, however, is that although GPS signals can point out turbulence within a specific vertical column, knowing at which altitude in that column is likely to cause problems for passing aircraft would still be difficult to determine.

Although mountains, jet streams, weather fronts and atmospheric convection can all cause clear air turbulence, fortunately, most turbulence is rarely severe.

What does Sharman classify as severe turbulence?

“Either momentary loss of control of the aircraft or a one ‘g’ acceleration,” said Sharman. “That means if you’re not buckled in, you’re flying out of your seat.”

Still, most commercial pilots would argue that severe turbulence rarely lasts more than a few seconds and even though the cockpit may momentarily lose control of the aircraft, once the incident is over, the plane automatically regains its flying composure.

Is a commercial airliner structurally at risk during severe turbulence?

“It can be,” said Sharman. “I've seen pictures of parts of a composite wing coating being ripped off. If you start bending or twisting a wing surface, some of that material can come off.”

In 1992, a DC 8 cargo aircraft suffered turbulence so severe over the Front Range of Colorado’s Rocky Mountains that its left outboard engine was completely ripped off as well as some 12 feet of its left wing’s leading edge. Mercifully, the pilot was able to limp into Denver International.

What can be done to avoid such incidents?

To a large degree, Gutman says it all comes down to national priorities. Gutman asks, do we as a nation want to use such systems to improve our ability to forecast and warn of severe aviation turbulence?

If so, Gutman says the proof of concept for this GPS-related turbulence avoidance system is ripe for the financing.

“If we had resources,” said Gutman, “we could do a demo this summer. Implementation is not difficult. What takes time is verifying that what we’re seeing corresponds to real events, so that false notifications of turbulence are low.”

Google Announces Project Ara Development Plans

As reported by The Guardian: Google announced its intention to move forward with the development of Project Ara, a $ 50 customizable module smartphone with interchangeable component blocks.

The concept is designed to give users unlimited ability to upgrade the device by swapping components. Despite its small staff size, the company’s Advanced Technology and Projects group (ATAP) is expected to have a working prototype within the next few weeks and will prepare a version for the consumer market for early 2015.

Project Ara was originally the brainchild of Motorola, whose parent company Google sold to Lenovo in January 2014. However, when the internet giant struck the Motorola deal with Lenovo, it retained the ambitious Ara project that was first announced by Motorola in Fall 2013. Project Ara will continue to be headed by ATAP, which is another Motorola-created company component that Google will retain post-sale.

The driving forces behind ATAP and Project Ara are Regina Dugan and Paul Eremenko, both of whom are veterans of the U.S. government’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Ms. Dugan serves as head of ATAP, while Mr. Eremenko is the project head for Ara. The design of Project Ara is meant to be very user-friendly. It allows the user to upgrade a smartphone as easily as erecting a set of building blocks. For instance, if a user wanted a faster CPU or stronger battery, they could acquire the individual components and switch out old for new. Both developers and users would benefit from this platform that allows for tons of creative options. Many experts believe that if Project Ara lives up to its potential, it could become the Android of hardware by creating unlimited opportunities for developers and users to construct unique consumer modules.

Another feature of Project Ara that has Google very excited is the development of a new high-speed 3D printer that can manufacture modules in mass quantities. This new technology allows the smartphones to be mass-produced and customized in a way that is unheard of for any consumer product. Additionally, the technology could ultimately lead to the printing of electrical elements, such as antennas and adapters, as opposed to conventional manufactured means.


The platform of Ara will support three sizes of smartphone–mini, medium, and jumbo-sized.

Specific measurement information is being kept under wraps. However, Google has released some general details to whet consumer appetites. The mini will have a very compact build similar to a razor phone, the medium will follow a more mainstream design like the iPhone, and the jumbo will resemble a phablet (phone tablet) format. The size of each phone offered will depend on its endoskelton, which also serves as the one component of Ara that is Google-devised and branded. This component of Ara has an aluminum frame with a small amount of network circuitry so the modules can communicate and a tiny battery. Every component of Ara comes in the form of a module and slide into place to form the phone. The larger the size of the phone, the more modules it can contain. In the initial prototype, pins were used to connect the modules to the endoskelton. However, Google has plans later in the year to modify that aspect of Ara and utilize more space-saving, capacitive connections.

Additional development features of Project Ara that have the internet giant and public anxiously awaiting its consumer debut include the ability to hot-swap modules without powering down, interchange any individual components of similar size no matter its function, wi-fi connectivity, and of course, the exceptional value of $50 for the basic phone that users can customize to one’s specific needs and desires. Google could be on the brink of the next technological phenomenon and consumers will reap the benefits no matter what the outcome.

First Outdoor Flocks of Drones Demonstrated in the EU

As reported by The Physics arXiv: If you've ever watched huge flocks of starlings wheel and pulsate in the early evening sky, you’ll know how spectacular this phenomenon can be. Starlings probably flock to reduce their chances of attack by predators such as peregrine falcons.

But their are many other reasons why this kind of group behavior is useful—more effectively navigation and foraging, for example. So it’s no surprise that various teams want to reproduce the same kind of behavior in artificial systems.

That’s turned out to be harder than it sounds, particularly for aerial flocking. So while various groups have created semi-autonomous flocks, and one group created a flock of slow-moving blimps in a gymnasium, nobody has successfully demonstrated a fully autonomous flock of robotic flyers that can fly outdoors.

Until now. Today, Gabor Vásárhelyi and pals from Eötvös University in Budapest, Hungary, reveal that they have successfully demonstrated the first autonomous flying robots capable of flockin

g outdoors, just as starlings do.

Flocking is hard because of each member of the flock has to be able to sense its environment and respond to changes quickly and accurately. That means each flyer has to measure its own velocity and position, the position and velocity of those around it, and use this information to calculate what to do next.

Even then, it must be capable of carrying out the necessary flight adjustments quickly. These machines must be able to hover, to fly in a specific direction at a specific speed and to change tack rapidly.

And they must be able to do all this using their own own on-board decision making process.

That’s a big ask but it has looked increasingly possible in recent years given that stable flying machines such as helicopters and quadcopters are now commercially available.

Vásárhelyi start with a commercially available quadcopter known as the MK Basicset L4-ME from the German company MikroKopter. This is capable of self-stabilized flight and is controlled using a handheld remote.

An example of the navigation module used to help provide the
flocking, formation, target tracking, and obstacle avoidance features.

The team’s first step was to modify these machines to make them autonomous. They did this by attaching an extension board carrying a variety of navigational devices such as a gyroscope, accelerometer, GPS receiver and so on as well as a wireless communications unit and a minicomputer.

During flight, each flyer constantly broadcasts its position and velocity to the others which then determine their own actions using the team’s flocking algorithm. This essentially implements two rules, a short range repulsion that prevents adjacent flyers from colliding, and a rule that aligns their velocity and keeps adjacent flyers going in roughly the same direction at the same speed.

Simulation of actual data generated from target tracking exercises.

Two reduce the amount of calculating each flyer has to do, the quadcopters all fly at the same altitude so that the flocking problem becomes a 2 dimensional one.

There is also a ground-based PC monitoring what’s going on and this can make real time changes to the algorithms controlling each flyer. But crucially, the flock does not rely on any centralized control for its behavior.

The results are impressive. These guys have successfully flown flocks with up to ten quadcopters in the air simultaneously. “We successfully established the first decentralized, autonomous multi-copter flock in an outdoor environment, with swarms of up to 10 flying robots, flying stably for up to 20 minutes,” they say.

They also find a number of interesting behaviors. One of the key problems these guys have to handle is the inevitable delay each flyer experiences between receiving information, processing it and then performing the necessary changes in flight.

Target tracking a moving vehicle.

This kind of delay can lead to all kinds of interesting oscillations within the flock. But it can also destroy the flock if it gets out of control. So the flight algorithms must be carefully fine-tuned to damp out the destructive effects.

But with this in hand, Vásárhelyi and co say they were able to fly their copters in various formations such as ring shapes and in lines. They've also observed self-organised behavior in which the quadcopters fly in lines and circles within pre-determined boundaries, just as locusts do in a similar circumstances.

Obstruction avoidance simulation - the flock is attempting to
reach the large geofenced area, while staying out of the smaller
obstacle areas.

There are limits on the behavior of the flocks, of course. The speed of he flyers determines the required braking distance between them to prevent collisions. And in any case, the average distance between the flyers is between 6 and 10 meters. This is determined by the positional accuracy of the GPS sensors which is to within 2 meters or so. Tighter formations will require better positioning accuracy.

Nevertheless, this is an exciting first step in this area. The potential applications for flocks are numerous. The researchers imagine using them for large-scale, redundant observations over wide areas, perhaps for farming, traffic monitoring and, of course, military purposes. And equipped with sensors, flocks could monitor large volumes of the atmosphere for signs of pollution. A real advantage in all this is the redundancy that a flock offers if one unit malfunctions.

With the first success in outdoor autonomous flocks, it shouldn't be long before we see more of these in the real world. Perhaps one day we’ll even be able to watch them gather at dusk and demonstrate their own spectacular aerial displays.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1402.3588 : Outdoor Flocking And Formation Flight With Autonomous Aerial Robots

California Court Rules Looking at Maps Apps Okay — But What About Everything Else?

As reported by Recode: A California appeals court today reversed a decision against a driver who was ticketed for looking at a map on his cell phone to find an alternate route around traffic.

The court found that the law prohibits listening and talking on the phone, as well as texting while driving, without using a hands-free device — but the law doesn't say anything that would ban looking at a map app.

Though it could still be appealed, the ruling is important given the broad popularity of mapping applications, whose main value is helping people navigate while they are with their phones, on the go.

What’s interesting is the decision specifically refers to the legality of the act of “looking at or checking a map.”

But c’mon — looking is not really all you do when you use Waze or Google Maps or your map application of choice. Rerouting around a traffic jam generally requires more than just a glance at your phone.
(Mapping apps do make some efforts around driver safety; for instance, Apple Maps takes over the lock screen during navigation, and Waze asks people in a moving vehicle to confirm they are a passenger before they are allowed to type. And all the apps can be controlled by voice. But still.)

While the court decision doesn't really address this particular point, it does refer to a 2012 clarification to the law that allowed drivers to “physically touch a speaker phone or other wireless communication device (e.g., Bluetooth speaker) to initiate or end contact with the other party.” The decision also notes that “surfing the Internet” from a phone while driving is not specifically banned.

But is it safe and should it be legal to touch the screen to open a maps app, pinch to zoom, and navigate to a menu that provides alternate routes? That seems slightly more important for the court and the law to clarify.

Uber Kept New Drivers Off The Road To Encourage Surge Pricing And Increase Fares

As reported by The Verge: Andrew Lane is a regular Uber customer with some fond memories of the service. Last year on President's Day he was the lucky rider selected for an "Ubercade" upgrade. "They sent over a free limo with secret service agents and everything. I got my girlfriend and we cruised by her ex-boyfriend's place. It was awesome." 

"We didn't activate new drivers to make earnings even higher this weekend." 

But this Valentines day, while traveling through San Diego in an Uber car, Lane heard something that disturbed him. "The driver had a Ford Sync system, and it read his text messages out loud." The message, which came wedged between numerous texts about a promotion for free roses, said, "UberX is very close to SURGE. It's Valentine's Day! People will be out all night and we didn't activate new drivers to make earnings even higher this weekend."

Uber’s surge pricing has been a controversial feature of the company’s business for some time. It uses an algorithm to raise and lower the price based on demand. At extremely busy times, especially holidays, rates can be as many as seven times the normal price. The company's CEO, Travis Kalanick, has been front and center defending this model.  

"Surge pricing only kicks in in order to maximize the number of trips that happen and therefore reduce the number of people that are stranded," he told Wired in an interview. Kalanick has always maintained that Uber is a neutral party, a technology platform that helps to most efficiently connect drivers and riders. "We are not setting the price. The market is setting the price. We have algorithms to determine what that market is."

"We are not setting the price. The market is setting the price." 

When Lane heard the Uber text message, he understood it to mean that the company was keeping current drivers off the road, limiting the supply to raise rates. To Lane it seemed Uber was favoring drivers over riders. "It made me angry, you know," says Lane. "Basically they are trying to rig the system to jack up fares on customers like me."

A law professor briefed on the text message says it may be suspect, given the company’s public framing of surge pricing. "This certainly sounds deceptive," says Arnold Rosenberg, assistant dean at the California Western School of Law in San Diego. "Something like this violates state laws around unfair business practices as well as Section 5 of the FTC act."

Uber says the whole thing is a misunderstanding.  Uber confirmed the text message, but says the whole thing is a misunderstanding. The company did not artificially restrict the number of drivers who were able to come on to the system on Valentine's Day — a particularly busy day for Uber rides — says spokesman Andrew Noyes. He explained the text simply noted that Uber did not onboard as many San Diego drivers as they could have that week because in the two weeks prior, a very large number of new drivers were added to the system. Earnings had been low, and the company wanted to reward new drivers with a strong holiday paycheck.

In other words, this wasn't Uber specifically tweaking the number of drivers at a given time to tip things over into a surge. It was a big-picture strategy to make their new drivers happy. Noyes points out that during the week of the 10th, when this trip took place, only 5.6 percent of the trips on the Uber network were affected by surge pricing.

"That is a slap in the face to customers." 

Regardless of when and why the additional drivers were withheld, the larger tension still stands: Uber insists that it's a marketplace, a neutral technology platform that works solely to connect drivers and riders with maximal efficiency. But it is also a business, and so may sometimes tilt the scales to keep drivers, its employees and contractors, happy.

The company’s explanation didn’t sit well with Lane. "Honestly it feels worse. Uber specifically withheld supply on a busy holiday weekend even while it predicted that doing so would create significantly higher prices," he said. "Best-case scenario it’s fleecing customers to enrich drivers, worst-case scenario it’s fleecing customers to enrich the broker (Uber). That is a slap in the face to customers."

Why You Could Soon Be Buying Your Electricity From Tesla

As reported by Quartz: Last week, it was argued that Tesla’s most disruptive product might not be its cars.  

Today, Morgan Stanley has provided further detail around this thesis, which is gaining increased traction on Wall Street. Tesla shares have soared about 13% this morning and are trading at fresh highs.

In a note published this morning, the investment bank posits that Elon Musk’s electric car company, which will unveil its plans to build  the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery pack facility this week, is poised to disrupt the $1.5 trillion electric utility industry. Tesla doesn't just make high-performance automobiles, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas argues, it’s also producing a mobile fleet of electrical grid storage.  The 40,000 Tesla vehicles already on the US roads contain about 3.3 gigawatts of storage capacity, roughly 0.3% of US electrical production capacity and 14% of US grid storage, he estimates.

By 2028, Morgan Stanley (which, it must be said, is among the most bullish of all Wall Street banks when it comes to the car company) estimates there will be 3.9 million Tesla vehicles on US roads. They will have a combined energy storage capacity of 237 gigawatts, some 22% of today’s US production capacity and nearly 10 times larger than all US grid storage that exists today.

Tesla’s “giga-factory,” where the lithium-ion battery packs will be produced, will probably cost $1 billion to build, Morgan Stanley estimates. But there will be myriad opportunities for the company to reap returns from that investment beyond sales of its own cars.

Plenty of questions remain about Telsa’s competency in the field of battery production and energy storage. At the moment, Tesla’s batteries are produced by Panasonic, which some expect to be a partner in the giga-factory.  At any rate it’s worth remembering that multiple battery fires last year sparked a federal probe into the company. (There were no injuries, and Musk has forcefully argued that there is “absolutely zero doubt that it is safer to power a car with a battery than a large tank of highly flammable liquid.”)  

Last week a Barron’s report  (paywall) said Tesla’s lofty valuation “exceeds fundamental reasoning.” But if Tesla really can become the world’s low-cost producer in energy storage, as Morgan Stanley predicts, then maybe it’s not so insane, after all. 

Rolls-Royce Is Developing Drone Cargo Ships

As reported by The Verge: Drones are already patrolling the skies, and eventually Rolls-Royce wants to see them take over the seas too. According to Bloomberg, Rolls-Royce Holdings is developing unmanned cargo ships that can be remotely controlled by captains using a virtual-reality recreation of a vessel's bridge. Development on the ships began last year, and it expects the unmanned ships to eventually offer a safer, cleaner, and less-expensive option for moving cargo.

"Now the technology is at the level where we can make this happen, and society is moving in this direction," Oskar Levander, a marine engineering and technology executive at Rolls-Royce, tells Bloomberg. "If we want marine to do this, now is the time to move."

While now may be Rolls-Royce's time to start moving, it's far from the time when these ships will set sail. As Bloomberg points out, there are quite a few regulatory and financial hurdles in the way of unmanned vessels, including international minimum crew requirements and an ineligibility for being insured by major providers. And, as when it comes to self-driving cars taking over the roads, there are already plenty of concerns about what could go wrong when humans are removed from the picture.

Levander acknowledges to Bloomberg that it won't be a quick transition, and he makes it clear that Rolls-Royce Holdings — the aircraft and ship engineering firm now separate from the BMW-owned automaker — is instead trying to get ahead of the pack. Its vision is appealing: by removing the crew, the bridge, and other equipment needed to support good living conditions, ships would reportedly be 5 percent lighter and burn 12 percent to 15 percent less fuel. Supporting the crew reportedly accounts for around 44 percent of total operating expenses on a large container ship as well, so there could eventually be an obvious path to savings.

Bloomberg reports that it could be a pricey path to get there though, as Rolls-Royce will have to develop new safety and backup equipment to handle potential machine failures. "It’s a given that the remote-controlled ship must be as safe as today," Levander tells Bloomberg. "But we actually think it can be even much safer than today." There's no word on how long development of the systems might take or what Rolls-Royce is doing to address its regulatory hurdles, but at least with self-driving cars, we've seen that lawmakers have been open to letting machine-controlled systems begin testing — so long as the right safety systems are in place.