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Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Former SpaceX Engineers Tout New Microreactor

Radiant’s microreactor is being developed for use in locations where other forms of power generation may not be practical, or even available. The company’s 1-MW-plus design makes it suitable to power small neighborhoods, remote commercial sites, and military bases. Courtesy: Radiant
As reported by Powermag.comA California company is gathering funding for development of a portable nuclear microreactor, designed for use in areas where other forms of power generation are not practical.

Radiant, founded by former SpaceX engineers, on Sept. 22 said it has raised $1.2 million from angel investors as it designs what the company calls a “clean energy alternative to fossil fuels for military and commercial applications.” Radiant executives said the funding is a combination of cash and cost-share commitments to support development of its more than 1-MW microreactor.

“Radiant is developing the first power generation system that can go anywhere,” company co-founder Doug Bernauer told POWER in an interview on Sept. 21. Bernauer is a former SpaceX engineer who while there worked on developing energy sources for an eventual Mars colony. Bernauer said he thinks microreactors hold the most promise to supply power for settlements on Mars, and during his research he saw an immediate opportunity to utilize the technology on Earth, which led him to found Radiant along with two other SpaceX colleagues.

“A lot of the microreactors being developed are fixed location,” Bernauer said. “Nobody has a [commercial] system yet, so there’s kind of a race to be the first.”

Patents for Upgrades

Radiant on Tuesday announced it has received two provisional patents for its advances in portable nuclear reactors. One of the technical upgrades decreases the time and cost for refueling the reactor; the other enables more-efficient heat transport from the reactor core.
Battelle Energy Alliance, the contractor that manages operations at the Idaho National Laboratory, and Radiant recently signed a memorandum of understanding seeking collaboration for development and testing of the technology.
“The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) looks forward to working with Radiant to test its portable nuclear microreactor at Idaho National Laboratory. It’s part of our mission to empower innovators, and deliver successful outcomes. This is an opportunity to innovate in ways that bring a cleaner energy future,” said Dr. Ashley Finan, Director of NRIC at INL, in a statement.
INL earlier this year chose an Oklo-designed microreactor as the first to receive high-assay, low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, nuclear fuel from the laboratory to support a first-of-its-kind demonstration of Oklo’s Aurora microreactor.
The use of microreactors to expand distributed power generation is part of a trend toward providing electricity to remote areas, as well as to military bases and commercial operations that need access to power but are far from the traditional grid.
“Cost optimization, a reduced power peaking factor … that’s all part of our design,” Bernauer said, noting the microreactor’s portability provides “freedom and optimization. One of the benefits of the portable system is that it’s so small, we can autonomously operate it.”

DOD a Primary Customer

Bernauer said Radiant is operating under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy during testing, and looking at the Department of Defense (DOD) as its primary market, as the DOD seeks a way to provide power to military bases in areas where access to electricity is not available.
The DOD, like other enterprises, also is looking at ways to reduce or eliminate the use of diesel and other fuels to provide power generation in remote areas.
“We target 72 hours from setting it down onsite, to full power production capacity,” Bernauer said of Radiant’s microreactor. He said the unit could be moved to a new location “after waiting just one week. It’s a self-contained system after you hit your site. The operating life is four to eight years, and that’s of course demand dependent. It can sync with other units and with the grid as well.”
Bernauer said portability of Radiant’s microreactor is key to its deployment, unlike small modular reactors that may be designed specifically to scale up. “We can do a modular configuration, but we’re more interested in keeping it portable,” he said.
“In some areas of the world, reliance on diesel fuel is untenable, and solar and wind power are either unavailable or impractical,” said Jess Gehin, PhD, Chief Scientist, Nuclear Science & Technology Directorate at INL. “Clean, safe nuclear microreactors are emerging as the best alternative for these environments.”

Eliminating Emissions, Fuel Transport Concerns

Diesel has long been the fuel of choice to run generators at remote sites. That brings both logistical challenges and environmental concerns, and the transport of fuel is a specific issue.
The U.S. Army in October 2018 published a report, titled “Mobile Nuclear Power Plants For Ground Operations,” that said about half of the 36,000 casualties in a nine-year period during the war in Iraq earlier this century came during land transport missions.
Microreactor developers have cited several important benefits, touting not only that the energy is clean, but that fuel can last four-plus years, refueling is not difficult, and the technology can work in areas with no sun or wind—even underground.
Radiant’s microreactor “is designed to power about 1,000 homes continuously for up to eight years,” according to the company. The microreactor is designed to fit in a shipping container—”single-high 8[feet] x 20 [feet], 9-and-a-half-feet high,” Bernauer said. It could be transported by air, ship, and road.
The company has said its microreactor is also safer than traditional nuclear power plant designs, leveraging particle fuel that withstands high temperatures and does not melt down. The use of helium coolant greatly reduces corrosion, boiling, and contamination risks associated with more traditional water coolant.
“We will be using a very well-established, extensively tested fuel, that’s already had hundreds of million of dollars of DOE testing,” Bernauer said. “We are taking what exists now and making it purely able to compete on cost.”
A company investor said the engineering and aerospace background of the Radiant team is an important aspect of his decision to support the effort.
“The innovative and ambitious team at Radiant has expertise from SpaceX as well as impressive nuclear industry credentials,” said investor Tom McInerney. “They have what it takes to bring new clean-energy solutions to market, and I’m excited to be part of their journey.”
“The nuclear industry can benefit greatly from aerospace technologies and software developments that have occurred over the past 20 years, and have not made their way into nuclear,” Bernauer said. He said that unlike some other microreactor developers, who may have academic backgrounds, his group is “engineers making an engineering product.”



Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Nikola Announces Deal with GM to Engineer and Produce its Electric/Hydrogen Pickup Truck


As reported by electrekNikola Motor (NKLA) announced a partnership with GM that will result in the latter engineering and manufacturing its upcoming Badger electric/hydrogen pickup truck, and maybe eventually its other vehicles.

Before Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck last year, Trevor Milton, founder of Nikola Motors, tweeted renders of a pickup truck that the company created and suggested that Tesla could use those for the Cybertruck since Nikola didn’t plan to build a pickup truck.

The comment appeared to be tongue-in-cheek since Nikola also accuses Tesla of stealing its design for its electric semi-truck.

However, after Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck and its polarizing design, Milton said that he planned for Nikola to build the vehicle, named Badger:
We were not planning on it if he built a good-looking truck. I was waiting to be first on the list, but I would never buy a Cybertruck. The Badger is what I was hoping Tesla would build design-wise. So if he won’t, I will. Now our interest is sky-high and why wouldn’t I?
In February, Nikola announced its plans for the Badger with a battery/fuel-cell hybrid powertrain enabling 600 miles of range, 0-60 mph acceleration in 2.9 seconds, and released a few renders.

A few months later, Nikola started taking $100 to $5,000 deposits for the pickup truck and launched a massive marketing campaign to try to accumulate reservations.

It included giving stock to the Diesel Brothers for promotion and a lot of online ads:
However, they don’t actually plan to bring this truck to market themselves, and now they are announcing their engineering and manufacturing partner: General Motors.

Nikola and GM have announced this morning a new wide-ranging partnership to manufacture and engineering the vehicle:
Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ: NKLA) and General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) today announced a strategic partnership that begins with the Nikola Badger and carries cost reductions through Nikola’s programs, including: Nikola Badger, Nikola Tre, Nikola One, Nikola Two, and NZT. As part of the agreement, Nikola will utilize General Motors’ Ultium battery system and Hydrotec fuel cell technology, representing a key commercialization milestone for General Motors.
Here are the bulletpoints from the new deal between the two companies:
  • General Motors to receive $2 billion equity stake in Nikola in exchange for certain in-kind contributions
  • General Motors to engineer, validate, homologate, and build the Nikola Badger for both the battery electric vehicle and fuel cell electric vehicle variants as part of the in-kind services
  • Nikola anticipates saving over $4 billion in battery and powertrain costs over 10 years and over $1 billion in engineering and validation costs
  • General Motors expects to receive in excess of $4 billion of benefits between the equity value of the shares, contract manufacturing of the Badger, supply contracts for batteries and fuel cells, and EV credits retained over the life of the contract
  • General Motors to be exclusive supplier of fuel cells globally (outside of Europe) to Nikola for Class 7/8 trucks, providing validation and scale in a multi-billion dollar total addressable market
  • Badger is anticipated to enter production by year-end 2022
Nikola Founder and Executive Chairman Trevor Milton commented:
Nikola is one of the most innovative companies in the world. General Motors is one of the top engineering and manufacturing companies in the world. You couldn’t dream of a better partnership than this. By joining together, we get access to their validated parts for all of our programs, General Motors’ Ultium battery technology and a multibillion-dollar fuel cell program ready for production. Nikola immediately gets decades of supplier and manufacturing knowledge, validated and tested production-ready EV propulsion, world-class engineering and investor confidence. Most importantly, General Motors has a vested interest to see Nikola succeed. We made three promises to our stakeholders and have now fulfilled two out of three promises ahead of schedule. What an exciting announcement.
General Motors Chairman and CEO Mary Barra added:
This strategic partnership with Nikola, an industry leading disrupter, continues the broader deployment of General Motors’ all-new Ultium battery and Hydrotec fuel cell systems. We are growing our presence in multiple high-volume EV segments while building scale to lower battery and fuel cell costs and increase profitability. In addition, applying General Motors’ electrified technology solutions to the heavy-duty class of commercial vehicles is another important step in fulfilling our vision of a zero-emissions future.
The agreement apparently also involves Nikola using GM’s fuel cell technology in its trucks, which have been marketed as the company’s main products for which they had apparently developed their own hydrogen technology.

GM added:
“This strategic collaboration continues the broader deployment of GM’s all-new modular platform and Ultium battery and Hydrotec fuel cell systems. Nikola using GM’s Ultium platform and Hydrotec fuel-cell technology, represents a key commercialization milestone for us. In addition, applying GM’s electrified technology solutions to the heavy-duty class of commercial vehicles is another important step in fulfilling our vision of a zero emissions future. Fuel cells will become increasingly important to the semi-truck market because they are more efficient than gas or diesel. GM sees additional growth opportunities in multiple transportation, stationary and mobile-power end markets. Longer-term, there are substantial financial benefits to GM. This includes ongoing profitability from GM serving as the exclusive fuel-cell supplier in all markets except Europe.  GM will also receive accretive revenue and earnings from Badger and fuel cell manufacturing and becomes the largest non-management shareholder in Nikola.”

Electrek’s Take

Well, this seems to have confirmed what I suspected for a long time: Nikola has essentially nothing.

I understand going with a manufacturing partner, but this announcement makes it sounds like GM is doing everything here.

Nikola is even using their battery and hydrogen technology – both things that Milton has been claiming they had been working for years to perfect at Nikola.

I remember Milton tweeting pictures of their battery packs claiming that they were the best ever made. You remember last year when Milton claimed that Nikola achieved a “major battery breakthrough” and now they are just going to use GM’s Ultimum batteries? Even the fuel cells will be from GM.

Years ago, they hired Bosch to help devlop their own fuel cell technology and now they are just going to use GM’s.

This seems ridiculous on the surface.

The press release makes it sound like Nikola is basically a branding company now:
“Nikola will be responsible for the sales and marketing for the Badger and will retain the Nikola Badger brand. “
But if the deal also extends to Nikola’s other vehicles, including its commercial trucks, what is happening with the technology that they claim to be developing for the past 5 years? Where is any stockholder value?

As for GM, they get roughly 11% of Nikola in return. That’s a horrible way to spend $2B if you ask me.

I think Barra is really trying to be relevant in electrification, but this is not the way to do it in my opinion. GM is going to lose important resources to that deal that they could have spent on building and marketing their own electric vehicles. What do they get in return? GM says:
GM also gets ongoing profitability from serving as the exclusive fuel-cell supplier in all markets except Europe. GM will also receive accretive revenue and earnings from Badger and fuel cell manufacturing, as well as becoming the largest non-management shareholder in Nikola.
But what does that all mean? They now own 11% of a controversial and polarizing brand they could have built themselves for much less money.

Monday, August 31, 2020

Tesla Model 3 Pikes Peak Crash Pics Are Crazy Intense

Unplugged Performance Tesla Model 3 Pikes Peak Crash
As reported by InsideEVsCrashing while racing up Pikes Peak is bound to be both pretty spectacular and scary to see. If there could possibly be any doubt about that, it is erased by these images of a Tesla Model 3 Performance driven by Randy Pobst that caught the car in mid-fiasco. Now, thankfully the professional driver is ok, but it seems like the car will not have a chance to compete in the official running of the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb on Sunday.

According to a tweet from Unplugged Performance – an aftermarket outfitter of Tesla parts and accessories which sponsored the entry – the crash occurred during an initial practice session on the top section of the mountain. They say Pobst way driving "way too hot" and hit a dip, which then caused the car to go airborne. Unfortunately, physics can be cruel with all its strict rules about what-goes-up-must-come-down and a-body-in-motion-tends-to-stay-in-motion, etcetera. Check out the pics in the gallery just below. If you need a tissue, it's ok. We understand.











It's truly unfortunate, because everything had been going well for the team up until this point. Pobst had been very pleased with the Model 3 in previous sessions covering the bottom section of the mountain. He had completed that in first place, keeping an incredible 26 seconds between himself and the closest competitor. He went so far as to say the battery-powered beast was the best of the six vehicles he'd ever raced in the event over his career, which is truly something.

Don't believe us? Hear him say it himself on video in the embedded tweet below. But, before you watch that, first, check out the in-car footage from that first amazing run.



Ok, now that you've taken that in, watch the clip in this embedded tweet. Be sure to watch until the end to capture some of the unscripted excitement of racing hard on a challenging course.



And here's video of Pobst discussing the crash and explaining what went wrong:

Sadly, the crash isn't the first experienced by a Tesla Model 3 at Pikes Peak this year. The event kicked off with an unholy trinity of the mid-sized electric sedan. That number had already been reduced by one when rookie Josh Allen crashed his entry hard enough to leave it out of the running. You can see it being towed unceremoniously away in the embedded tweet below.


The remaining contender is being driven by Blake Fuller. He famously set a record in a Tesla Model S in 2016. Indeed, it is that record he is attempting to beat this year. If you'd like a little insight into that car, we watched it do a 2-mile lap of our test track in early June. You can also see it going through tech inspection at the mountain in the embedded tweet below.


Fingers crossed this last Tesla Model 3 entry makes it to race time on Sunday and performs as it ought to. Expect the record to fall if it does.

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Ford Starts Construction on New Factory for Electric F-150 Pickup Truck


As reported by ElectrekFord has started construction on a new factory to build the upcoming electric F-150 pickup truck next to its current pickup factory in Dearborn, Michigan.

You could argue that no one has a bigger stake in electric pickup trucks.

Electrification has disrupted every segment it has touched, and with Ford being the leader in the pickup truck segment with the F-150, it has the most to lose if it doesn’t play a big part in electrifying the segment.

Ford sold about 900,000 F-Series pickup trucks last year, bringing in around $42 billion in revenue. The US automaker has a plan to bring an electric F-150 to market, but not much is known about it.

When confirming plans to launch an all-electric version of the F-150, Ford’s best-selling pickup truck, Darren Palmer, the head of Ford’s Team Edison, said that the automaker was aiming to bring the electric F-150 to market “before 2022.”

This would have put the vehicle in line with a series of new electric pickup trucks scheduled to come in “late 2021,” like Tesla Cybertruck and GMC Hummer EV.

However, earlier this year, Ford confirmed that the production will start in 2022.

Ford is currently working on bringing a redesigned F-150 next year.

While it’s retooling its factories for the new version of the truck, Bloomberg reports that Ford also started building a new plant next to its Dearborn factory to build the new electric version:
Ford will temporarily shut a factory in Michigan next month to install machinery for the redesigned F-150 pickup going on sale next year. The automaker also is constructing a new facility adjacent to its Dearborn, Michigan, truck plant to build an electric version of the F-150, according to people familiar with the project. Prototype production is expected to start next year, said the people, who asked not to be identified revealing internal plans.
While the first production prototypes are expected next year, the actual volume production for dealerships is not expected until 2022.

Interestingly, it’s going to be Ford’s first electric vehicle built from the ground up to be produced in the US.

This year, Ford is bringing the Mustang Mach-E to market, but the vehicle is built in Mexico.

With an official launch date in 2022, the Ford F-150 Electric is coming after the Tesla Cybertruck, Rivian R1T, Lordstown Endurance, and several other electric pickup trucks slated for 2021.

However, all these programs are based on building new factories or major retooling of existing factories, and therefore, the timelines for any of those new vehicle programs could also slip.


Ford Begins Construction of New Factory in Preparation for the Production  of its Electric F-150 - The Next Avenue
Electric F-150 pulling a line of freight train cars weighing over 1 million lbs.

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

Jeep's Monster Off-Road E-Bike Starts Shipping in Early September

Jeep e-bike shipping next week
It looks like it can go downhill as well as it goes uphill.
As reported by EngadgetJeep’s full-suspension off-road e-bike with insane amounts of power and an equally ludicrous price tag will finally start shipping in “early September,” according to manufacturer QuietKat. The company also released a climb performance video, showing that you’ll be able to mount steep hills without breaking much of a sweat — the dream of every Sunday mountain biker.


The Jeep e-bike comes with a 750 watt “Bafang Ultra” motor that can peak at 1,500 watts and go for 30-60 miles thanks to the 48 volt, 14.5aH battery. It has a RockHox Monarch RL rear shock and front air suspension fork with 150mm of travel, 10 speeds, 4-piston hydraulic disc brakes and 4.8-inch fat-tires. It weighs in at 79 pounds, over double the weight of a normal competition downhill bike, but it’s not bad considering it also gives you a ride up the hill.

You’re going to pay to get the ultimate all-terrain, Jeep-branded e-bike. It starts at $5,899, which sounds like a lot, but is in the ballpark of other full-suspension e-bikes. As mentioned, QuietKat has promised that it’ll start shipping in early September.

The Colorado Startup Dreaming up a Return to Supersonic Flight

Boom
Boom Supersonic hopes to test-fly its supersonic plane in 2021.
As reported by EngadgetIn less than 50 days, a company will unveil what it hopes will be the plane to kickstart a new generation of supersonic flight. On October 7th, Boom Supersonic is planning to show off the XB-1, its single-seat test craft, with flights planned for next year. It’s early days, but what happens in Colorado in the next 18 months could have lasting consequences on how we fly.

We’ve been here before. In the 1960s, the British and French governments came together to build a supersonic liner. Concorde began flying in 1969 and entered commercial service in 1976, with its last flight taking place in 2003. There’s only been one other civilian supersonic transport (SST), the Russian-made Tupolev TU-144, but it barely counts. Most students of aviation history know that the plane made less than a hundred passenger flights before retirement.

Concorde’s life played out the latter half of the 20th century in microcosm. Created in an optimistic era by engineers who solved the plane’s challenges in longhand. This mechanical marvel, fast and reliable, flew at Mach 2.04 and, along with the moon landing, marked the high point of humanity’s technological achievement. By the time that it came into service, much of that optimism had given way to cynicism.

In the righter-wing decades that followed its birth, we simply decided to walk back from the future. Concorde wasn’t abandoned because we improved upon it, but because it was cheaper to do something worse. Why let a handful of people cross the Atlantic in a couple of hours when the jumbo jets (that were developed concurrently) can do the same at far lower cost?



Two decades later, and a new generation of entrepreneurs, tired of waiting for another optimistic age, are trying to build it themselves. That’s where the Colorado-based Boom Supersonic and its founder, Blake Scholl, come in. Scholl describes himself as an Objectivist (a follower of the teachings of Ayn Rand) and previously worked for both Groupon and Amazon. He freely admits that, beyond his private pilots license, he does not have an aerospace background.

During our talk, Scholl referenced SpaceX a number of times, and it’s clear that Elon Musk’s private spaceflight company is the model Boom is striving to emulate. “You know, when SpaceX got started, it was a joke that a startup could build a rocket,” he said “and not that many years later, they’re landing rockets vertically on pads.” Scholl’s ambition is to do for supersonic travel what SpaceX did, and is doing, for the space industry.  

One of the things that Scholl and Boom are banking on is the advances in computer-aided design and materials science. The single-seat, 71-foot long XB-1 is designed to test if these advances will make building a supersonic plane far more efficient and cheap than it was in the ‘60s. XB-1 will use a variety of molded carbon fiber composites for its body that should hold up better against the heat and stresses caused by supersonic flight. The company says that the plane should be able to withstand temperatures exceeding 300 Fahrenheit (148C). 



Concorde had no on-board computer and had a movable nose; Such was the angle of attack upon landing that Concorde’s nose had to drop in order for the pilots to see where the ground was. The XB-1 ditches that in favor of cameras on the nose and landing gear, hopefully reducing complexity. And the plane’s design has been refined (in a virtual simulator) to ensure a high fineness ratio, a fancy way of saying the plane is shaped narrow and pointy to reduce drag at high speeds. 

XB-1 will be piloted by Commander Bill ‘Doc’ Shoemaker, a 21-year US naval aviator who led combat missions in an F-18 on a number of occasions. He has also served as a flight test instructor at the US Navy test pilot school and previously worked for Zee.Aero, one of (Google co-founder) Larry Page’s self-funded flying car startups.



If XB-1 proves successful, then Boom will move to begin building its full-size supersonic plane, Overture. Overture is a craft designed to seat less than a hundred people at “business class” levels of comfort. And for “business class” prices, they’ll be able to fly from, say, Tokyo to Seattle in four hours and thirty minutes. 

One problem with there being a singular example of the technology in history is that all discussions inevitably lead back to Concorde. One of that plane’s biggest failures was emissions: it was notorious for guzzling gas and emitting highly toxic particles. Boom has already pledged that its test program will be entirely “carbon neutral” and that its planes will set the bar for energy efficient planes.

“One of the principal reasons that Concorde wasn’t affordable was that it just consumed too much fuel,” said Scholl. “Fast forward 50 years and none of those things need to be true any more.” XB-1 and Overture are designed to use alternative fuels, rather than the kerosene mixes found on some liners today. Scholl said that as well, the company is working with other businesses to develop airline grade fuel through direct air capture.
Direct Air Capture is a system that draws carbon dioxide out of the air and recombines it to create hydrocarbons. Companies like Carbon Engineering are working on systems to mass-produce fuel in this way to create (if you squint) “carbon neutral fuel.” Of course, that still requires the burning (and releasing) of carbon back into the atmosphere but the hope is that, if more CO2 is extracted than used, it’ll be more virtuous than existing fossil fuels.
Boom also promises its planes will use less fuel through a combination of efficient materials and better engines. Scholl said that the planes are powered with a “quiet, efficient turbofan system [...] a similar engine architecture to what you’d see on any large Airbus or Boeing wide-body aircraft today, just adapted for supersonic flight.” And recently, Boom announced that it was teaming up with Rolls Royce to build an engine for Overture. 

Concorde was killed by economics -- it was too expensive to run and far too expensive to support, especially as it got older. British Airways had to buy its contingent from the UK government at famously knock-down rates to keep them going. Scholl says that Overture is going to be expensive, but that Boom’s lack of a legacy is as much of a benefit as it is a burden. “We don’t have to think about the 737 Max, we don’t have to think about how to keep the factories running for our last-generation airplanes,” he said, claiming that Boom has the “luxury of focus.”

Scholl expects Overture to cost just $6 billion to develop -- by comparison, a 2011 Seattle Times report claimed that Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner cost $32 billion to design. But Scholl is planning to sell 2,000 Overture aircraft for “$200 million a pop,” which he says is a “$200 [billion] to $400 billion market opportunity.” Those targets represent an ambitious plan to effectively swallow the majority of global business travel. If successful, such a move would render traditional long-haul business class obsolete.



Except, of course, that launching a supersonic plane to bring the world together and enable a new generation of business travel isn’t ideal in 2020. We are, of course, struggling to deal with a pandemic that has dramatically discouraged air travel for anything but essential reasons. As I wrote back in June, COVID-19 will see a dramatic reduction in people flying, enough to kill off some of the airline industry’s biggest planes. (That said, the economics of flight mean that a smaller plane with fewer passengers, flying at capacity each time, will likely remain profitable. Which suggests that Overture’s sub-100 capacity and high speed may be the ideal vehicle for post-pandemic travel).

“We’re still a few years away from flying Overture and carrying our first passengers,” said Scholl, “and by the time that happens, COVID will be a distant nightmare.” Scholl says that Boom is “designing Overture to be the first post-pandemic airplane.” Both because you’ll be spending less time in the air, and also down to cabin airflow modeling Boom is planning to do. Scholl says he expects Overture’s cabin to be “safer than a typical restaurant.”

And Scholl isn’t too worried about a depression in business travel, saying that video conferencing cannot replace the “human connection.” He cited statistics claiming that private air travel, while still below 2019 levels, is still up on commercial flights. Scholl expects that, in the next decade or so, when the global health crises and economic crises are behind us, flying will be back in demand just at the time that Overture is ready to satisfy it. 

It’s still early days, of course, and right now the first step on the road to a second supersonic age sits half-finished in a Denver warehouse. But that’s how all of these journeys begin, with unbridled (and sometimes unfounded) optimism. As the commercial aviation industry enters one of its darkest periods in a generation, perhaps a dose of optimism is exactly what’s needed.